The wind speeds off the Oregon coast are a few of the strongest wherever. And in accordance with a brand new examine, the associated fee to reap that useful resource utilizing a floating offshore wind farm has dropped by roughly two-thirds since a pilot venture was deserted in 2016.
The examine, printed this month by the Nationwide Renewable Power Laboratory (NREL), modeled the potential price of energy from floating offshore wind farms sited at 5 zones equally spaced alongside a north-south axis no less than 10 nautical miles from Oregon’s coast.
The levelized price of power (LCOE) for the hypothetical initiatives — 600 megawatts every, outfitted with 15-megawatt generators, and developed by 2032 — ranged from $74 per megawatt-hour within the north to $53 per megawatt-hour within the south, close to the California border and that state’s personal potential offshore wind bounty.
“Total, the prospects for offshore wind in Oregon look promising for large-scale electrical energy era,” the authors conclude.
“Floating know-how is maturing quickly, and offshore wind can present a carbon-free various electrical energy supply in coastal areas, particularly within the southern area the place offshore annual common wind speeds are close to 10 m/s [meters per second] and among the many highest in the US,” the authors added.
One of many 5 websites included within the examine is positioned offshore Coos Bay, the place Precept Energy submitted an unsolicited lease request for the WindFloat Pacific demonstration venture in Might 2013. Precept Energy withdrew its lease request for the venture, which had been slated to comprise as much as 5 6-megawatt generators, in September 2016.
In response to NREL, the LCOE for that venture was $197 per megawatt-hour, in comparison with $63 per megawatt-hour for a 600-megawatt commercial-scale venture as modeled within the new examine.
Earlier price estimates out of date
The tempo of know-how development within the offshore wind business is rendering even current price projections outdated.
Throughout a presentation earlier this month at a workshop convened by the California Power Fee, Walter Musial, co-author of the brand new Oregon examine and the lead for offshore wind analysis at NREL, stated a 2016 NREL examine he co-authored on offshore wind prices in California is now “out of date.”
The California examine estimated the LCOE for floating offshore wind within the state at round $100 per megawatt-hour by 2030, with wind turbine capability maxing out at 10 megawatts. A key assumption within the Oregon examine is the business availability of 15-megawatt generators.
In an interview with Greentech Media, Musial stated, “Primarily based on the previous 35, 40 years of wind power growth, we are able to extrapolate to an affordable growth state of affairs by which, say, a 15-megawatt turbine may very well be out there available on the market by 2030 — actual 15-megawatt generators, not simply ones that they’ve put greater turbines on.”
Different components contributing to the steep decline within the estimated price for the floating offshore wind initiatives embody decrease anticipated financing prices and economies of scale which are driving venture builders to put in ever-larger generators.
In response to Musial, the Oregon examine assumed fixed-charge rates of interest at 7.1 %, whereas the California examine assumed that floating offshore wind’s then-higher danger profile would require fixed-charge rates of interest higher than 10 %.
The NREL group additionally discovered that a prevailing business scaling assumption — that turbine dimension and prices go up in lockstep — not holds true.
“We’re not seeing that,” stated Musial. “We’re seeing that the price of generators, because the venture scales, it doesn’t necessitate a better turbine price per kilowatt-hour.”
The problem of deeper depths
For now, wind business exercise off the shores of Oregon is quiet. However authorities stakeholders know the curiosity is there; the wind useful resource is simply too good for venture builders to remain away indefinitely.
Final month, in Portland, the Oregon Intergovernmental Renewable Power Job Pressure, which is led by the Bureau of Ocean Power Administration, met for the primary time in 5 years. The 2 dozen native, state and federal officers who spoke on the assembly have been clear that one other unsolicited lease request may come at any time, and this time the state ought to be prepared.
Musial famous that the NREL Oregon price examine is simply that, and never an exhaustive evaluation of the suitability of the 5 websites studied.
“All of the websites would wish an intensive vetting, and so they haven’t been via any of that from the standpoint of conflicting use or environmental impacts,” he stated.
Deep water may very well be a complicating issue, as an illustration, as mooring strains for floating generators should nonetheless be anchored to the seafloor. The 5 websites studied have been restricted to waters not more than 1,000 meters deep. Musial stated that within the south, the place wind speeds are the strongest, water depths improve so shortly off the continental shelf that builders may encounter depths higher than 1,000 meters at the very best websites.
“There’s no exhausting restrict on depth for the know-how, nevertheless it does get fairly costly, and there have not been…sufficient research performed to evaluate what is perhaps the implications of actually deep water,” he stated.
Regardless of the challenges, price estimates within the examine may show to be conservative.
“It is going to most likely even be decrease than [$53 per megawatt-hour] if we wished to web site the generators on the best attainable wind velocity web site we are able to get to,” stated Musial. In response to Wooden Mackenzie, the levelized price of electrical energy from floating offshore wind farms may hit $44 per megawatt-hour by 2030.
Given time and a strong venture pipeline, producers will develop gear custom-made for floating offshore wind initiatives.
“Each turbine that has been deployed on a floating platform was not designed to be on that floating platform — it was designed to be on a hard and fast platform,” stated Musial.
“There’s an optimization [for floating turbines] that would happen and hasn’t but, and it received’t happen till there’s a visual pipeline with sufficient deployment capability in it to justify the OEMs designing a fit-for-purpose floating offshore wind turbine.”